‘Too far from reality’: Prabowo has ambitious plans for a greener Indonesia but experts warn of challenges ahead

JAKARTA: Indonesia’s lofty ambitions to combat climate change, including a recent pledge by President Prabowo Subianto to phase out the country’s use of fossil fuels in the foreseeable future, are laudable even if they appear ambitious, say analysts. 
They also warn that challenges remain for Indonesia in achieving its planned goals.
And beyond that, one expert said that some of the policies that are currently in place by the government appear to have the opposite effect: An increase in non-renewable energy usage. 
“We appreciate the ambition, but it is a bit too far from reality. There are many contradictions when we do a reality check,” Mr Leonard Simanjuntak, country director of Greenpeace Indonesia, told CNA. 
Over the past weeks, Indonesian leaders – including Mr Prabowo – have talked up the country’s climate goals at various major international summits. 
At the Group of 20 (G20) major economies leaders summit in Brazil on Nov 19, Mr Prabowo said that Southeast Asia’s biggest economy is planning to phase out the use of coal energy within 15 years. 
“Indonesia is rich in geothermal resources, and we plan to phase out coal-fired and all fossil-fueled power plants within the next 15 years. Our plan includes building over 75 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity during this time,” said Mr Prabowo, who was inaugurated as Indonesia’s eighth president at the end of October. 
He made similar remarks during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru on Nov 14.
“We will probably be one of the few countries that can achieve 100 per cent renewable energy in a few years. We can replace fossil fuels with renewable energy,” he said. 
Besides Mr Prabowo, his younger brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo – who is the president’s climate envoy during the recently concluded 2024 UN Conference of Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan – also highlighted the Indonesian government’s ambitions. 
At the annual climate change conference, Mr Hashim told delegates that Indonesia wants to achieve net zero emissions before 2050 by increasing biofuel use and using renewable energy, including nuclear.
Given that Indonesia’s main source of energy mainly stems from the use of fossil fuels, experts say that these pledges require political will to carry out and it remains to be seen if the Prabowo administration will make good on the pro-environment promises. 
During the G20 summit in Brazil, Mr Prabowo highlighted that Indonesia is open to managing up to 557 million tonnes of carbon credits. 
Carbon credits are permits that allow the owner to emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases. 
The president noted that Indonesia has a large carbon storage capacity and is ready to offer it to other countries.
Meanwhile, to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the Indonesian government aims to increase the use of biodiesel and renewable energies. Biodiesel is a renewable fuel derived from biological sources such as vegetable oils, recycled greases and animal fats. 
In Indonesia, biodiesel is mainly sourced from crude palm oil (CPO) since it is the world’s biggest producer of the commodity. 
Last year, the country produced 47 million tonnes of CPO, accounting for 54 per cent of global exports, according to data gathering website Statista.
The biodiesel used in Indonesia at the moment is called B35. This refers to the mandatory 35 per cent palm oil blend in biodiesel while the remaining 65 per cent is made up of petroleum diesel. 
The government aims to increase biodiesel usage next year in a 40 to 60 ratio – under what it calls the B40 biodiesel programme. In the next few years, the government even wants to implement B50 and B60 programmes.
Indonesia’s energy mix currently includes fossil fuels and renewables, but fossil fuels dominate at more than 80 per cent of the total used, according to Statista. The country is also one of the world’s biggest coal producers. Hence, fossil fuel is the country’s most accessible and cheapest energy source. 
And according to past reports, Indonesia has more than 250 coal-fired power plants. About 62 per cent of electricity in Indonesia is derived from coal and 18 per cent from gas. The remaining 20 per cent comes from renewable sources. 
However, during the recently concluded COP29, Mr Hashim said the government will introduce new plans, including an ambitious clean energy project that aims to develop 75 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity.
This is part of the government’s plans to add 100 gigawatts to the grid within the next 15 years. Currently, Indonesia’s electricity capacity is about 73 gigawatts. 
“This 75 (gigawatts addition) is a massive commitment to (use) new and renewable energy. It consists of wind power, geothermal, hydropower, and nuclear. We will build nuclear power centres,” Mr Hashim said on Nov 11, revealing plans to build two nuclear power plants – the country’s first. 
One of them would be a floating plant in a region in the archipelago which is not prone to earthquakes. 
But experts told CNA that challenges and unintended consequences are aplenty in Indonesia’s planned move away from coal. For one, increasing the usage of biodiesel in Indonesia may lead to increased deforestation.
“Biofuel is actually quite problematic because the potential for deforestation is large,” said Mr Leonard of Greenpeace Indonesia. 
He highlighted that biofuel is a source of deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. Often called the “lungs of the planet”, the rainforest is known for its vital role in absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and releasing oxygen. 
“So, do we want to repeat the mistake (here as) with the Amazon?” 
Indonesia’s palm oil industry is often linked to deforestation, especially in the provinces of Sumatra, Kalimantan, and mineral-rich Papua. 
To implement the B50 programme, for example, 9 million hectares of forest land needs to be cleared, said Mr Leonard, citing a study Greenpeace Indonesia did with the University of Indonesia a few years ago. 
“And the definition of land in Indonesia is complicated – whether certain areas are classified as a forest area, or non-forest area, or other use areas but forested, it is tricky,” he told CNA. 
The government has said it would use non-productive land, but Mr Leonard questions whether there is enough. Non-productive land is land used to produce commodities such as palm oil but has since become unusable over time.
He further added that with the increased biodiesel usage, big corporations often gain economic benefits, not small farmers, since they are the ones who operate in the sector. 
The processing cost for biofuel in Indonesia is also still quite costly. Therefore, the government would need to spend money to pay for subsidies, said Mr Leonard. 
“Our research shows that the subsidy per litre of biofuel is greater than the petroleum subsidy,” he added. 
Besides, the government’s biofuel target contradicts its goal to increase gas production of 12 billion cubic feet (BCF) per year by 2030, Mr Leonard said, referring to the government’s pledge to achieve net zero emissions. 
By increasing gas production, the amount of emission produced will also increase which would make it harder to achieve a net zero emission target.
Also contradictory to Mr Prabowo’s statement of phasing out coal usage in 15 years in favour of renewables is a statement made by Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto on the sidelines of the G20 summit. 
Mr Airlangga said that the government plans to cut the share of coal-fired power plants to just 33 per cent while increasing the contribution of renewables to 42 percent by the end of 2040.
And while Indonesia does have untapped potential in renewable energy sources such as geothermal, development within the sector has not been smooth sailing. 
The country – which is home to about 130 active volcanoes – holds about 40 per cent of the world’s geothermal energy potential. 
Ms Beyrra Triasdian – a renewable energy manager at non-governmental organisation Trend Asia – said that Indonesia has been using geothermal energy for the past 50 years.
About 5 per cent of its current energy mix is from geothermal sources.
But she warned that building a geothermal power plant requires a lot of water and, in some instances, has dried up rivers near the location. 
“When drilling is done (to build the power plant), the amount of water used is massive,” said Ms Beyrra. 
Such is the case in Dieng, Central Java, which led to protests from villagers. 
The geothermal power plant in Dieng has also suffered from gas explosions and toxic gas leaks. The government plans to build a geothermal power plant in East Nusa Tenggara but has also been met with resistance from locals there. 
Meanwhile, plans by the government to build nuclear power plants in the archipelago have been met with scepticism by some. 
Indonesia lies on the Pacific “Ring of Fire” which is an area of intense tectonic activities. Thus, it is very prone to earthquakes. 
Nuclear power plants could be dangerous if they are not operated and maintained well, say experts. 
Japan’s 2011 earthquake – often dubbed the “Great East Japan Earthquake” – is an example of how even a developed country struggled to contain the adverse effects when a nuclear power plant’s operation was affected by an earthquake, the experts told CNA. 
A nuclear power plant in Fukushima experienced an electrical grid failure after a major earthquake rocked Japan, releasing radioactive contaminants into the nearby environment.  
Ms Beyrra thinks that because the public is generally against large-scale nuclear reactors, the government is aiming to build mini-reactors. 
“But there is rejection not just because we want to reject it. It is because there is no feasibility study and whether people accept it,” she said. 
Ms Beyrra opined that while it is good that the government is thinking about using renewable energy, she said that many people in the vast archipelago still live without proper power supply. 
Hence, the government should pay attention to this and focus on building renewable energy in remote areas to ensure everyone can have access to electricity. 
“Access to energy is still problematic in many areas. Especially since Indonesia has many small islands,” said Ms Beyrra. 
Meanwhile, Mr Leonard from Greenpeace Indonesia pointed out that carbon capture storage will not solve air pollution issues since it is a trading system. 
However, Mr Fabby Tumiwa – who is the executive director of think tank Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) – noted that the money the government could generate from carbon capture storage could be helpful for Indonesia’s energy transition, which requires large sums of money. 
“There’s nothing wrong with it as long as it’s done transparently and correctly,” he said. 
The analysts CNA spoke to believe the government should implement policies that can align with its target of reducing Indonesia’s dependence on fossil fuels.
“We appreciate the ambition, but it must be followed by fundamental policies that support the development of renewable energy and not provide space for false solutions,” said Mr Leonard. 
“We should also reconsider going nuclear because there are too many harms than benefits.” 
The government should also consider people’s livelihoods when building power plants, including renewable ones, and ensure their safety. 
It should also pay more attention to people without electricity or minimal access.
“The need for an energy transition is to get a decent and good life for humans, which fossil fuels have damaged for the past 150 years.
“So energy transition must prioritise human needs,” said Ms Beyrra from Trend Asia. 
Given Indonesia’s geographical situation on the equator and limited state budget, solar energy is likely the most reliable renewable energy source in Indonesia, said analysts. 
“I’m not saying this is better (than the others), but if we talk about the technology that can be easily and quickly applied, that is solar energy,” said Mr Fabby from IESR.
“If all residential buildings in Indonesia use solar energy, we have the potential of 655 gigawatts,” said Mr Fabby.
This excludes houses which are not made of concrete material, he added. 
And whatever action the government will take, Mr Fabby hopes the government prioritises the people first. 
“I hope it will provide direct economic benefits to the community.”