What Canada Can Expect From a Second Trump Presidency

A number of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s focus areas could have major ramifications for Canada, and as America’s northern neighbour and closest ally, Canada could be witness to significant U.S. foreign policy changes and global alliance implications.
In his third presidential campaign, Trump focused on promises around boosting the U.S. economy and reducing inflation, whether through renegotiating free trade in North America, imposing tariffs, or cutting taxes.
Trump has also taken a hard line against illegal immigration, promising massive deportations. Increasing U.S. oil production and negotiations with OPEC nations could also affect global oil prices and by extension Canada’s energy-rich provinces. Trump’s insistence on allies’ defence spending commitments will have major financial impact on Canada as well.
CUSMA, which came into effect July 1, 2020, contains a clause that says it is to undergo a formal review every six years, starting on its sixth anniversary of entry into force, which falls in 2026.
Trump said on the campaign trail that he will formally notify Canada and Mexico of his intent to invoke the six-year renegotiation clause upon taking office. He said he was behind the clause and that it was the “hardest thing I had to get,” as “they didn’t want that.”
Trump said he would seek stronger protections on transshipments so that countries like China cannot “smuggle their products and auto parts into the United States tax free through Mexico.”
“We are optimistic that Canada will ultimately avoid blanket tariffs,” wrote TD economist Marco Ercolao in a report released on Oct. 24. “The likelihood that tariffs drag down the U.S. economy, disrupt supply chains, and stoke inflation are enough of a reason to forgo tariffs on Canada.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, in congratulating Trump on his win, identified these promised tax cuts as a threat to Canadian jobs.
If these promises kick into gear, it will take place at a time when the Canadian government has also significantly modified the way it approaches immigration, amid a crunch in housing and services.
Asked about the potential for illegal immigrants to cross into Canada after Trump’s win to avoid deportation, Freeland said “Canadians expect us to control our border.”
“Canadians quite rightly believe that it needs to be a decision of Canada and Canadians [as to] who comes to our country and who doesn’t, and that is something that we absolutely have a plan to ensure,” she told reporters on Nov. 6.
The RCMP says it’s been actively preparing for the impact on migration flows stemming from Trump’s potential return to the White House.
Trump has said when it comes to the NATO military alliance, member countries shouldn’t expect to be defended if they don’t pull their own weight in defence spending.
Minister Joly was asked by reporters on Nov. 5 whether her government would try to reach the deadline before 2032 to avoid the issue being an obstacle to Canada-U.S. trade negotiations. “We are investing more than ever in defence starting next year,” she said. “Of course we will abide by our obligations towards our NATO allies.”
After Trump won the Nov. 5 election, top Canadian ministers struck an optimistic tone in public even though they could face stronger headwinds in their relationship with the United States.
Trudeau congratulated Trump on his “decisive victory” and said he looks forward “once again” to growing the two countries’ economies.
“On our side, we’ve been preparing for this. We’re looking forward to doing this work,” he told reporters in Ottawa on Nov. 6.
Freeland also congratulated Trump on his “truly historic election victory,” but added that she knows “a lot of Canadians who are feeling unsettled today.”
“I want to say to all Canadians that I am absolutely confident that Canada will be prosperous,” she said on Nov. 6.
“We had some very intensive times together,” she added about Trump during the NAFTA renegotiations. “We had some tough moments, but at the end of it, working with President Trump and his team, we renegotiated our trade agreement with the United States.”
“Juvenile playground insults from the wannabe MAGA, ’maple syrup’ Conservatives do not frighten me at all,” Freeland said, in reference to Trump’s Make America Great Again slogan.
Trudeau, while testifying before the Foreign Interference Commission on Oct. 16, said that with Trump’s first election there had been “big threats” from the “rise of right-wing populism around the world.”
“It was very much the moment we were living in, in 2015, 2016, 2017, and grappling with as a responsible, progressive rule-of-law democracy that believes in facts and evidence as the basis for policy decisions, as we are as a government.”
Strong words were exchanged in the past as well.
In 2018, after a G7 meeting hosted by Canada in Quebec, Trudeau said at a press conference that he wouldn’t hesitate to take retaliatory measures in response to U.S. tariffs. Trump reacted by saying that Trudeau “acted so meek and mild” during the meeting and that the prime minister had made the remarks after Trump left.
A year later, at a NATO summit in London, England, Trump called Trudeau “two-faced” after Trudeau was caught on a hot mic appearing to mock Trump in front of other world leaders for having a lengthy press conference.
After the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill riots, Trudeau issued a statement saying they were “incited” by Trump.
Following the first assassination attempt on Trump in July, Trudeau was quick to call him to wish him well and condemn the attack.